FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.65 – 73.26

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 383.9 ±11.2

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 18.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 21.23Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 20.65Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.9 ±9.8

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 29.79Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 23.57Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 19.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10004, 401, 10257

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10004, 401, 10257

Auto

9.6 16%

Teleop

26.1 43%

Endgame

24.6 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 1262, 5724

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 1262, 5724

Auto

19.5 27%

Teleop

35.2 48%

Endgame

18.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.7pts

Blue projected score73.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.6
Score range: 46–88
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 222 vs event baseline 85.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

383.9Season APEX373.9

9.6Auto19.5

26.1Teleop35.2

24.6Endgame18.5

67Consistency30

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	28
teleop	66	75
endgame	0	30
foul	5	0
total	89	133

Result

Final score

89 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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