FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

148.31 – 56.84

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

187 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 398.3 ±9.8

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 30.62Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 28.34Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 89.35Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.8 ±12.7

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 1.07Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 32Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 23.77Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 339, 3939, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

148.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 339, 3939, 619

Auto

16.7 13%

Teleop

82.1 65%

Endgame

28.4 22%

Strengths

· 619 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4286, 3072, 8326

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4286, 3072, 8326

Auto

20.8 41%

Teleop

30.2 60%

Endgame

-0.5 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 0.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score148.3pts

Blue projected score56.8pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.5
Score range: 42–163
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 280 vs event baseline 82.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

398.3Season APEX121.8

16.7Auto20.8

82.1Teleop30.2

28.4Endgame-0.5

28Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	10
teleop	117	32
endgame	49	21
foul	5	30
total	187	93

Result

Final score

187 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 37.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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