FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

47.84 – 50.99

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

33 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 226 ±11.7

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 10.14Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 31.16Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 6.54Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 204.7 ±12.8

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 14.21Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 11.77Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 25.01Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9214, 10224, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9214, 10224, 11425

Auto

18.3 41%

Teleop

20.2 46%

Endgame

5.6 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 1522, 6802

/ 100 compat

Projected

51 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 1522, 6802

Auto

9.6 21%

Teleop

23.1 51%

Endgame

13.0 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score47.8pts

Blue projected score51pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.1
Score range: 33–66
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 83.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

226Season APEX204.7

18.3Auto9.6

20.2Teleop23.1

5.6Endgame13

59Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	10
teleop	19	29
endgame	0	10
foul	0	0
total	33	49

Result

Final score

33 – 49

Prediction correct · off by 8.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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