FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

81.87 – 17.11

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 65 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.3 ±12.2

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 27.25Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 28.14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 26.48Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 390 ±12.4

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX -14.52Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 1.59Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 30.04Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 404, 9709, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 404, 9709, 1262

Auto

6.0 7%

Teleop

53.1 65%

Endgame

22.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1915, 10257, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

17.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1915, 10257, 346

Auto

7.7 28%

Teleop

11.5 41%

Endgame

8.8 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score81.9pts

Blue projected score17.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 64.8
Score range: 2–97
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 82.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.3Season APEX390

6Auto7.7

53.1Teleop11.5

22.1Endgame8.8

0Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	12
teleop	62	91
endgame	15	40
foul	0	0
total	86	143

Result

Final score

86 – 143

Prediction missed · off by 65 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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