FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.15 – 60.98

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

78 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196 ±11

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 7.98Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 15.46Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 27.71Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±12.2

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 18.9Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3072Backwoods Bots

Season APEX 70.7Event APEX 28.37Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 13.71Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3361, 10004, 8326

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3361, 10004, 8326

Auto

9.5 19%

Teleop

29.1 58%

Endgame

11.3 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 3072, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

61 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 3072, 1522

Auto

18.4 33%

Teleop

28.8 52%

Endgame

8.0 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score61pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.8
Score range: 37–75
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 145 vs event baseline 79.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196Season APEX247.8

9.5Auto18.4

29.1Teleop28.8

11.3Endgame8

38Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	11
teleop	29	30
endgame	11	21
foul	20	5
total	78	67

Result

Final score

78 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 16.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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