FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.36 – 107.85

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

56 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.4 ±12.4

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 36.29Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 15.71Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 27.36Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 318.3 ±11.1

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 7.44Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 86.28Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 14.13Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6802, 9214, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6802, 9214, 401

Auto

15.9 21%

Teleop

36.1 47%

Endgame

25.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 617, 619, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 617, 619, 1599

Auto

14.2 13%

Teleop

56.5 52%

Endgame

38.2 35%

Strengths

· 619 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.4pts

Blue projected score107.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.5
Score range: 65–122
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 78.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.4Season APEX318.3

15.9Auto14.2

36.1Teleop56.5

25.5Endgame38.2

0Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	16
teleop	39	129
endgame	4	29
foul	0	0
total	56	174

Result

Final score

56 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 44.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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