FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.72 – 25.84

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.7 ±10.5

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 11.46Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 108.52Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 33.74Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 283.6 ±10.4

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 11.6Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 10.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 4.08Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5804, 2106, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5804, 2106, 404

Auto

25.2 17%

Teleop

89.8 60%

Endgame

33.9 23%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8592, 339, 3361

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8592, 339, 3361

Auto

-1.1 0%

Teleop

10.9 48%

Endgame

13.0 57%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.7pts

Blue projected score25.8pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 127.9
Score range: 12–168
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 75.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.7Season APEX283.6

25.2Auto-1.1

89.8Teleop10.9

33.9Endgame13

72Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	16
teleop	88	51
endgame	34	5
foul	10	10
total	156	82

Result

Final score

156 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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