FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

58.26 – 43.92

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 263.9 ±12.4

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 7.54Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX -19.12Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 69.84Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 330.6 ±11.2

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -6.54Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 14.53Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 35.93Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1522, 1915, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1522, 1915, 619

Auto

13.5 26%

Teleop

30.1 58%

Endgame

8.7 17%

Strengths

· 619 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4286, 540, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4286, 540, 1262

Auto

15.5 46%

Teleop

30.9 91%

Endgame

-12.6 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score58.3pts

Blue projected score43.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 30–72
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 75.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

263.9Season APEX330.6

13.5Auto15.5

30.1Teleop30.9

8.7Endgame-12.6

119Consistency100

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	20
teleop	72	36
endgame	33	0
foul	0	0
total	126	56

Result

Final score

126 – 56

Prediction correct · off by 39.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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