FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

57.25 – 28.97

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

18 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.7 ±11.7

3361Governators

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 18.53Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 43.45Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX -4.73Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 360.8 ±11.2

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 12.96Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 9.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 6.07Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3361, 1262, 1915

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3361, 1262, 1915

Auto

16.2 34%

Teleop

33.9 72%

Endgame

-3.1 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 540, 10224, 9214

/ 100 compat

Projected

29 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 540, 10224, 9214

Auto

0.6 2%

Teleop

28.8 93%

Endgame

1.5 5%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.3pts

Blue projected score29pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.3
Score range: 16–70
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 116 vs event baseline 73.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.7Season APEX360.8

16.2Auto0.6

33.9Teleop28.8

-3.1Endgame1.5

76Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	25
teleop	6	52
endgame	0	21
foul	0	0
total	18	98

Result

Final score

18 – 98

Prediction missed · off by 54.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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