FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

45.52 – 155.86

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 236.1 ±11

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 25.67Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 16.23Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 3.62Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 411.8 ±11.1

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 20.86Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 102.93Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 32.07Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1599, 5724, 3939

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1599, 5724, 3939

Auto

0.8 2%

Teleop

34.0 71%

Endgame

13.1 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8326, 2106, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 2106, 404

Auto

29.4 19%

Teleop

86.9 57%

Endgame

35.1 23%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score45.5pts

Blue projected score155.9pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.3
Score range: 33–169
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 70.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

236.1Season APEX411.8

0.8Auto29.4

34Teleop86.9

13.1Endgame35.1

101Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	33
teleop	44	110
endgame	35	45
foul	0	5
total	88	193

Result

Final score

88 – 193

Prediction correct · off by 39.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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