FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 51.49

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.2 ±11.7

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -17.58Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX -12.94Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 1.41Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.6 ±12.8

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX 20.14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10004SCAROB (Star City Area Robotics)

Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 14.16Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 17.19Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4286, 2998, 401

/ 100 compat

Projected

-29.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4286, 2998, 401

Auto

-6.6 20%

Teleop

-15.8 48%

Endgame

-10.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9709, 10004, 6802

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9709, 10004, 6802

Auto

14.8 35%

Teleop

20.1 47%

Endgame

7.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.81 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score-29.1pts

Blue projected score51.5pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.5
Score range: -13–64
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 104 vs event baseline 71.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.2Season APEX153.6

-6.6Auto14.8

-15.8Teleop20.1

-10.8Endgame7.5

151Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	9
teleop	33	22
endgame	3	27
foul	0	0
total	46	58

Result

Final score

46 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 26.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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