FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

36.11 – 53.29

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

81 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±11.7

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 11.44Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX -0.02Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

339Kilroy Robotics

Season APEX 85.4Event APEX 24.69Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 335.7 ±11

977Cometbots

Season APEX 101.5Event APEX 22.39Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 14.24Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 16.66Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1086, 1522, 339

/ 100 compat

Projected

36.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1086, 1522, 339

Auto

-2.5 0%

Teleop

23.0 88%

Endgame

5.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 977, 8592, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

53.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 977, 8592, 5804

Auto

5.6 10%

Teleop

36.2 63%

Endgame

15.8 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.37

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score36.1pts

Blue projected score53.3pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.2
Score range: 23–66
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 158 vs event baseline 70.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.6Season APEX335.7

-2.5Auto5.6

23Teleop36.2

5.6Endgame15.8

111Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	23
teleop	19	38
endgame	34	16
foul	20	0
total	81	77

Result

Final score

81 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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