Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
61.49 – 110.14
35%65%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
16 – 136
Prediction correct · off by 35.7 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 175.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 95.1Event APEX 21.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 51.92Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -12.13Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.3 ±9.8
Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 11.44Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 11.44Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 87.26Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10004, 1599, 4286
65
/ 100 compatProjected
61.5 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 10004, 1599, 4286
Auto
11.9 21%
Teleop
33.3 58%
Endgame
12.4 22%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 10224, 3361, 2106
88
/ 100 compatProjected
110.1 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 10224, 3361, 2106
Auto
18.9 17%
Teleop
65.0 59%
Endgame
26.1 24%
Strengths
- · 2106 anchors offense
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 25%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.71
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score61.5pts
Blue projected score110.1pts
Red win probability35%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 25%, blue 38%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -48.6
- Score range
- 49–122
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
175.8Season APEX499.3
11.9Auto18.9
33.3Teleop65
12.4Endgame26.1
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 7 | 23 |
| teleop | 4 | 89 |
| endgame | 0 | 24 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 16 | 136 |
Result
Final score
16 – 136
Prediction correct · off by 35.7 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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