FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

62.13 – 58.03

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

68 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 192.8 ±11

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 18.33Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 25.12Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5804TORCH

Season APEX 98.4Event APEX 18.68Rank 8Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 361.5 ±12.4

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 32.53Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 25.2Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1522DOTM - Defenders of the Multiverse

Season APEX 41.3Event APEX 0.3Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8326, 5724, 5804

/ 100 compat

Projected

62.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 5724, 5804

Auto

14.0 22%

Teleop

30.7 49%

Endgame

17.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 9214, 1522

/ 100 compat

Projected

58 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 346, 9214, 1522

Auto

2.1 4%

Teleop

38.1 76%

Endgame

10.1 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score62.1pts

Blue projected score58pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.1
Score range: 45–75
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 69.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

192.8Season APEX361.5

14Auto2.1

30.7Teleop38.1

17.9Endgame10.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	11
teleop	37	27
endgame	12	9
foul	0	0
total	68	47

Result

Final score

68 – 47

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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