FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

54.36 – 83.11

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±10.5

617Enginerds

Season APEX 49.4Event APEX 12.69Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

540TALON 540 Godwin Robotics

Season APEX 200.5Event APEX 14.8Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8592Newton Squared

Season APEX 135.8Event APEX 26.87Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 274 ±11

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 59.69Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 2.71Rank 27Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 20.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 617, 540, 8592

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 617, 540, 8592

Auto

5.6 10%

Teleop

36.4 63%

Endgame

15.7 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1262, 2998, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1262, 2998, 1086

Auto

11.3 16%

Teleop

48.7 70%

Endgame

10.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 22%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score54.4pts

Blue projected score83.1pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 22%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.7
Score range: 41–96
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 83 vs event baseline 70.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

385.7Season APEX274

5.6Auto11.3

36.4Teleop48.7

15.7Endgame10

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	7
teleop	25	13
endgame	1	11
foul	0	20
total	32	51

Result

Final score

32 – 51

Prediction correct · off by 27.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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