FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.99 – 0.62

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

174 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 406.4 ±11.7

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 59.13Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9709Isotope Robotics

Season APEX 30.9Event APEX -2.51Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 27.37Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 90.3 ±12.8

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 25.47Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -15.39Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1915Firebird Robotics

Season APEX 21.8Event APEX -9.46Rank 13Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2106, 9709, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2106, 9709, 1599

Auto

20.0 23%

Teleop

43.3 49%

Endgame

24.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5724, 4286, 1915

/ 100 compat

Projected

0.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5724, 4286, 1915

Auto

2.4 39%

Teleop

-0.2 0%

Endgame

3.9 64%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score84pts

Blue projected score0.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.4
Score range: -11–96
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 67.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

406.4Season APEX90.3

20Auto2.4

43.3Teleop-0.2

24.4Endgame3.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	7
teleop	98	7
endgame	48	3
foul	0	0
total	174	17

Result

Final score

174 – 17

Prediction correct · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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