FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.36 – 78.58

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 452.5 ±11.2

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 132.08Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 47.66Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6802Snot Otters

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 16.62Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 229.4 ±12.2

8326Hopper Robotics

Season APEX 38.5Event APEX 16.11Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3939Botetourt 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 112.1Event APEX 65.31Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10257Vector Space

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -2.84Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2106, 1262, 6802

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2106, 1262, 6802

Auto

39.4 21%

Teleop

110.4 59%

Endgame

37.9 20%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8326, 3939, 10257

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8326, 3939, 10257

Auto

15.2 20%

Teleop

43.7 59%

Endgame

15.4 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.4pts

Blue projected score78.6pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 117.8
Score range: 59–216
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 109.8.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

452.5Season APEX229.4

39.4Auto15.2

110.4Teleop43.7

37.9Endgame15.4

14Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	14
teleop	99	39
endgame	39	5
foul	15	0
total	194	58

Result

Final score

194 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 11.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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