FCH District Glen Allen VA Event presented by Porvair Filtration

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

273.83 – 169.87

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

328 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 84.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 564.1 ±9.3

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 117.11Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5724Spartan Robotics

Season APEX 55.9Event APEX 27.83Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2106The Junkyard Dogs

A+

Season APEX 307.4Event APEX 128.89Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.1 ±9.3

401Copperhead Robotics

Season APEX 210Event APEX 71.2Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 73.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 25.15Rank 28Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 5724, 2106

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 619, 5724, 2106

Auto

49.3 18%

Teleop

156.2 58%

Endgame

62.3 23%

Strengths

· 2106 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 401, 346, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 401, 346, 11425

Auto

24.5 14%

Teleop

106.1 63%

Endgame

38.8 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score273.8pts

Blue projected score169.9pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104
Score range: 151–293
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 105.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

564.1Season APEX565.1

49.3Auto24.5

156.2Teleop106.1

62.3Endgame38.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	42
teleop	180	150
endgame	85	72
foul	0	20
total	328	284

Result

Final score

328 – 284

Prediction correct · off by 84.2 pts

Match videos

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