FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.84 – 164.2

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±11

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 60.04Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 76.4Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 63.4Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.8 ±12.1

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 57.02Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 38.98Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 68.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 10224, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 10224, 526

Auto

29.5 15%

Teleop

106.6 56%

Endgame

55.4 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1599, 9003, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1599, 9003, 404

Auto

25.6 16%

Teleop

88.9 56%

Endgame

43.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.86 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score199.8pts

Blue projected score164.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.6
Score range: 137–227
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 340 vs event baseline 152.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.5Season APEX226.8

29.5Auto25.6

106.6Teleop88.9

55.4Endgame43.8

100Consistency75

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	31
teleop	104	75
endgame	42	45
foul	0	0
total	189	151

Result

Final score

189 – 151

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Match videos

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