FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

196.56 – 176.06

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

185 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.7 ±9.9

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 109.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 8.45Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 78.79Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.7 ±13.3

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 19.47Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 69.74Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 86.85Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 6326, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 6326, 1908

Auto

39.3 20%

Teleop

109.9 57%

Endgame

42.7 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 612, 2363, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 2363, 2028

Auto

18.0 10%

Teleop

103.6 59%

Endgame

52.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score196.6pts

Blue projected score176.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.5
Score range: 149–224
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 343 vs event baseline 151.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.7Season APEX245.7

39.3Auto18

109.9Teleop103.6

42.7Endgame52.9

55Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	50
teleop	86	92
endgame	51	16
foul	5	0
total	185	158

Result

Final score

185 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Match videos

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