FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

206.29 – 188.09

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±11

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 62.13Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 78.46Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 65.7Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±10.4

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 40.3Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 82.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 65.21Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 10224, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

206.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 10224, 526

Auto

27.5 14%

Teleop

113.0 58%

Endgame

56.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 1086, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 1086, 2890

Auto

41.1 23%

Teleop

102.2 56%

Endgame

39.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score206.3pts

Blue projected score188.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.2
Score range: 161–233
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 375 vs event baseline 151.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.5Season APEX294.3

27.5Auto41.1

113Teleop102.2

56Endgame39.2

92Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	52
teleop	71	101
endgame	51	57
foul	0	0
total	165	210

Result

Final score

165 – 210

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 pts

Match videos

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