FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.54 – 157.53

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

362 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 107.21Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 8.37Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 101.96Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.5 ±11

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 40.2Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 60.91Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 56.42Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 2998, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2998, 122

Auto

47.5 22%

Teleop

115.6 55%

Endgame

48.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8230, 1895, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 1895, 11415

Auto

33.0 21%

Teleop

81.0 51%

Endgame

43.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score217.5pts

Blue projected score157.5pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 60
Score range: 131–245
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 149.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.4Season APEX324.5

47.5Auto33

115.6Teleop81

48.8Endgame43.3

82Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	108	41
teleop	200	55
endgame	54	49
foul	0	0
total	362	145

Result

Final score

362 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 78.5 pts

Match videos

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