FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.54 – 154.63

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

215 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 245.7 ±13.3

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 17.7Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 69.1Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 83.74Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.8 ±12.1

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 53.47Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 35.78Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 65.38Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 612, 2363, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 2363, 2028

Auto

17.8 11%

Teleop

94.7 56%

Endgame

56.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1599, 9003, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1599, 9003, 404

Auto

24.9 17%

Teleop

80.0 53%

Endgame

45.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.5pts

Blue projected score154.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.9
Score range: 128–198
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 149.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

245.7Season APEX226.8

17.8Auto24.9

94.7Teleop80

56.5Endgame45

44Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	25
teleop	146	114
endgame	40	39
foul	0	0
total	215	178

Result

Final score

215 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Match videos

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