FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

184.12 – 107.83

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

260 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 529.7 ±9.9

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 103.95Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 4.97Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 75.2Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185.8 ±11.6

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 20.87Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 42.2Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 44.76Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 6326, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 6326, 1908

Auto

40.8 23%

Teleop

96.9 54%

Endgame

41.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 539, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 539, 2068

Auto

25.3 24%

Teleop

48.5 45%

Endgame

32.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score184.1pts

Blue projected score107.8pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.3
Score range: 81–211
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 148.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

529.7Season APEX185.8

40.8Auto25.3

96.9Teleop48.5

41Endgame32.9

65Consistency105

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	42
teleop	168	18
endgame	49	18
foul	0	0
total	260	78

Result

Final score

260 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

Match videos

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