FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.97 – 162

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

243 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±10.4

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 36.36Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 79.28Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 62.33Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 324.5 ±11

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 41.25Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 62.81Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 57.94Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11425, 1086, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

178 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 1086, 2890

Auto

40.4 23%

Teleop

96.7 56%

Endgame

36.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8230, 1895, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

162 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 1895, 11415

Auto

32.9 20%

Teleop

89.8 55%

Endgame

39.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178pts

Blue projected score162pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 64%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16
Score range: 135–205
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 392 vs event baseline 147.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.3Season APEX324.5

40.4Auto32.9

96.7Teleop89.8

36.4Endgame39.3

42Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	35
teleop	132	57
endgame	50	57
foul	10	0
total	243	149

Result

Final score

243 – 149

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Match videos

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