FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

227.17 – 212.89

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

190 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 27.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 110.57Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 10.81Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 105.79Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±11

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 81.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 63.96Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 67.09Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 2998, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2998, 122

Auto

42.6 19%

Teleop

125.1 57%

Endgame

53.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10224, 620, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

212.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 10224, 620, 526

Auto

29.9 14%

Teleop

117.1 56%

Endgame

62.2 30%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score227.2pts

Blue projected score212.9pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.3
Score range: 187–253
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 385 vs event baseline 147.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.4Season APEX306.5

42.6Auto29.9

125.1Teleop117.1

53.7Endgame62.2

84Consistency81

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	25
teleop	88	104
endgame	28	31
foul	5	35
total	190	195

Result

Final score

190 – 195

Prediction missed · off by 27.5 pts

Match videos

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