FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.58 – 269.19

28%72%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

174 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±10.4

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 42.98Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 83.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 67.94Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 124.99Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 25.52Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 118.68Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11425, 1086, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 1086, 2890

Auto

44.7 23%

Teleop

105.1 55%

Endgame

40.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 2998, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2998, 122

Auto

56.7 22%

Teleop

148.6 57%

Endgame

55.4 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.6pts

Blue projected score269.2pts

Red win probability28%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -74.6
Score range: 167–297
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 538 vs event baseline 156.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.3Season APEX413.4

44.7Auto56.7

105.1Teleop148.6

40.8Endgame55.4

46Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	42
teleop	81	235
endgame	35	82
foul	5	5
total	174	364

Result

Final score

174 – 364

Prediction correct · off by 57.7 pts

Match videos

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