FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

263.04 – 196.84

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

313 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 122.9Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 23.48Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 116.66Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±11

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 58.9Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 74.89Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 63.05Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 2998, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

263 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2998, 122

Auto

55.9 22%

Teleop

146.8 57%

Endgame

54.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 620, 10224, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 10224, 526

Auto

31.3 16%

Teleop

105.4 56%

Endgame

53.0 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score263pts

Blue projected score196.8pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.2
Score range: 169–291
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 507 vs event baseline 155.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.4Season APEX306.5

55.9Auto31.3

146.8Teleop105.4

54.2Endgame53

8Consistency109

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	63	37
teleop	161	107
endgame	64	50
foul	25	0
total	313	194

Result

Final score

313 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 26.4 pts

Match videos

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