FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

191.61 – 194.01

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

219 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.3 ±10.4

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 41.97Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 82.69Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 66.95Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 529.7 ±9.9

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 109.33Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 7.24Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 77.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11425, 1086, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 1086, 2890

Auto

42.4 23%

Teleop

102.3 55%

Endgame

42.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4099, 6326, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

194 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 6326, 1908

Auto

39.4 21%

Teleop

105.7 56%

Endgame

44.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.6pts

Blue projected score194pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.4
Score range: 164–222
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 485 vs event baseline 154.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.3Season APEX529.7

42.4Auto39.4

102.3Teleop105.7

42Endgame44.1

40Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	39
teleop	125	140
endgame	35	72
foul	0	15
total	219	266

Result

Final score

219 – 266

Prediction correct · off by 49.7 pts

Match videos

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