FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

168.88 – 241.62

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

171 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.4 ±13.3

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 13.98Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 68.85Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 86.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.4 ±10.5

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 115.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 16.34Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 109.76Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11252, 2363, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 2363, 2028

Auto

19.8 12%

Teleop

103.1 61%

Endgame

45.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 422, 2998, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 422, 2998, 122

Auto

56.2 24%

Teleop

130.5 55%

Endgame

50.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score168.9pts

Blue projected score241.6pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -72.7
Score range: 142–269
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 152.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.4Season APEX413.4

19.8Auto56.2

103.1Teleop130.5

45.3Endgame50.2

82Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	53
teleop	97	249
endgame	65	82
foul	0	15
total	171	399

Result

Final score

171 – 399

Prediction correct · off by 79.8 pts

Match videos

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