FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.78 – 126.08

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

20 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 91 ±13.9

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 41.74Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 9.23Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 6.81Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.1 ±11

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 53.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 43.92Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 28.81Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1793, 9403, 9214

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1793, 9403, 9214

Auto

8.3 15%

Teleop

28.0 50%

Endgame

19.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 10224, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1086, 10224, 526

Auto

15.0 12%

Teleop

66.8 54%

Endgame

42.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.8pts

Blue projected score126.1pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.3
Score range: 37–147
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 274 vs event baseline 116.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

91Season APEX342.1

8.3Auto15

28Teleop66.8

19.2Endgame42.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	21
teleop	3	170
endgame	7	63
foul	0	0
total	20	254

Result

Final score

20 – 254

Prediction correct · off by 82.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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