FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.77 – 102.34

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

254 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 109.3 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265.4 ±11.6

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 38Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 11.2Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 28.57Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 129.3 ±12.2

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 38Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 11.2Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 53.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 122, 8230, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 122, 8230, 404

Auto

17.2 23%

Teleop

37.7 49%

Endgame

21.4 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2998, 4286, 1895

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2998, 4286, 1895

Auto

17.2 17%

Teleop

54.6 54%

Endgame

29.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.5 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.8pts

Blue projected score102.3pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.6
Score range: 58–122
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 314 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265.4Season APEX129.3

17.2Auto17.2

37.7Teleop54.6

21.4Endgame29.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	12
teleop	154	26
endgame	57	17
foul	0	5
total	254	60

Result

Final score

254 – 60

Prediction missed · off by 109.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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