FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.47 – 129.42

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

62 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.1 ±11.6

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 37.71Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 5.88Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 27.88Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258.9 ±12.2

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 37.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 50.57Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 41.14Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2890, 539, 6326

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2890, 539, 6326

Auto

18.8 27%

Teleop

31.4 45%

Endgame

19.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2068, 2028, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2068, 2028, 611

Auto

19.4 15%

Teleop

67.1 52%

Endgame

41.4 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.16 · Blue 2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.5pts

Blue projected score129.4pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -57.9
Score range: 50–150
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 114.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.1Season APEX258.9

18.8Auto19.4

31.4Teleop67.1

19.6Endgame41.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	16
teleop	9	53
endgame	12	36
foul	0	0
total	62	105

Result

Final score

62 – 105

Prediction correct · off by 16.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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