FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.06 – 116.87

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

229 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±11.6

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 57.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 29.49Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 60.29Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±11

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 35.2Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 38.63Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 43.04Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 9003, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 9003, 526

Auto

20.2 14%

Teleop

77.4 55%

Endgame

41.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11425, 8230, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11425, 8230, 2068

Auto

27.6 25%

Teleop

57.1 51%

Endgame

27.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score147.1pts

Blue projected score116.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.2
Score range: 91–173
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 371 vs event baseline 146.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.8Season APEX199.4

20.2Auto27.6

77.4Teleop57.1

41.9Endgame27.7

50Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	24
teleop	126	61
endgame	54	47
foul	0	10
total	229	142

Result

Final score

229 – 142

Prediction correct · off by 53.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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