FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

170.77 – 55.44

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

176 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 354.4 ±11.2

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 117.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 42.15Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 11.04Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.1 ±13.3

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 2.51Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 16.88Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 36.05Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 11425, 11252

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 11425, 11252

Auto

42.9 26%

Teleop

80.4 48%

Endgame

44.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3359, 612, 9003

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3359, 612, 9003

Auto

18.8 35%

Teleop

25.5 48%

Endgame

8.9 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.13 · Blue 0.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.8pts

Blue projected score55.4pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 115.3
Score range: 26–200
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 203 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

354.4Season APEX168.1

42.9Auto18.8

80.4Teleop25.5

44.2Endgame8.9

88Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	6
teleop	102	12
endgame	27	9
foul	0	0
total	176	27

Result

Final score

176 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 16.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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