FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.51 – 83.26

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

326 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 428.9 ±11.2

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 95.6Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 100.81Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 9.1Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 116.5 ±13.3

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 16.35Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 13.58Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 53.33Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 122, 422, 9403

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 122, 422, 9403

Auto

36.1 18%

Teleop

114.2 57%

Endgame

49.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11252, 1793, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 1793, 1599

Auto

21.8 26%

Teleop

37.2 45%

Endgame

24.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.23 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score205.5pts

Blue projected score83.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 122.2
Score range: 57–232
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 416 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

428.9Season APEX116.5

36.1Auto21.8

114.2Teleop37.2

49Endgame24.4

78Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	86	2
teleop	175	50
endgame	65	38
foul	0	0
total	326	90

Result

Final score

326 – 90

Prediction correct · off by 63.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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