FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

122.4 – 186.4

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 157.8 ±12.7

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 9.19Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 71.42Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 41.79Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 254.7 ±11

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 61.88Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 63.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 60.88Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9214, 2363, 539

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9214, 2363, 539

Auto

23.6 20%

Teleop

57.0 48%

Endgame

38.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1895, 404, 2890

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1895, 404, 2890

Auto

46.0 25%

Teleop

99.0 53%

Endgame

40.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.2 · Blue 2.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.4pts

Blue projected score186.4pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -64
Score range: 96–212
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 354 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

157.8Season APEX254.7

23.6Auto46

57Teleop99

38.8Endgame40.8

59Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	58
teleop	45	131
endgame	43	39
foul	0	5
total	121	233

Result

Final score

121 – 233

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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