FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.96 – 87.97

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424 ±11.2

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 105.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 80.09Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 5.29Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 273.5 ±12.2

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 19.41Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 6.91Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 61.65Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4099, 1086, 3359

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4099, 1086, 3359

Auto

49.7 26%

Teleop

113.9 60%

Endgame

26.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 612, 6326, 11415

/ 100 compat

Projected

88 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 6326, 11415

Auto

16.7 19%

Teleop

38.6 44%

Endgame

33.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.12 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191pts

Blue projected score88pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 103
Score range: 62–217
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424Season APEX273.5

49.7Auto16.7

113.9Teleop38.6

26.5Endgame33.2

33Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	35
teleop	127	33
endgame	15	16
foul	0	0
total	199	84

Result

Final score

199 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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