FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

29.07 – 240.42

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 78.2 ±12.7

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 19.91Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -2.4Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 11.56Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.5 ±11.2

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 84.61Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 74.47Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 81.34Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 611, 4286, 2998

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.1 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 4286, 2998

Auto

2.1 8%

Teleop

1.6 6%

Endgame

21.8 85%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2028, 1908, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.4 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 1908, 10224

Auto

20.3 9%

Teleop

142.0 61%

Endgame

70.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.53 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score29.1pts

Blue projected score240.4pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -211.3
Score range: 3–266
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 311 vs event baseline 144.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

78.2Season APEX484.5

2.1Auto20.3

1.6Teleop142

21.8Endgame70

97Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	38
teleop	23	170
endgame	8	59
foul	0	0
total	44	267

Result

Final score

44 – 267

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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