FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

226.57 – 96.35

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 421.6 ±9.8

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 60.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 63.07Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 103.22Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.1 ±13.3

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 13.03Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 19.58Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

526Saxon Sparks

Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 63.74Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 1895, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

226.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 620, 1895, 422

Auto

39.2 18%

Teleop

129.2 58%

Endgame

54.7 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9403, 11252, 526

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9403, 11252, 526

Auto

23.3 24%

Teleop

50.9 53%

Endgame

21.9 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.31 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score226.6pts

Blue projected score96.4pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130.2
Score range: 70–253
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 144.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

421.6Season APEX146.1

39.2Auto23.3

129.2Teleop50.9

54.7Endgame21.9

88Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	14
teleop	105	37
endgame	32	9
foul	10	0
total	212	60

Result

Final score

212 – 60

Prediction correct · off by 25.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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