FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

93.67 – 103.21

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.8 ±13.3

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 73.07Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 14.36Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3359Royal Robotics

Season APEX 29.7Event APEX 6.24Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 189.4 ±12.2

539Titan Robotics

Season APEX 51Event APEX 41.28Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 43.64Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 18.29Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2363, 1793, 3359

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2363, 1793, 3359

Auto

24.6 26%

Teleop

46.0 49%

Endgame

22.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 539, 2068, 612

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 539, 2068, 612

Auto

26.2 26%

Teleop

52.4 52%

Endgame

23.0 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score93.7pts

Blue projected score103.2pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.5
Score range: 68–129
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 145.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.8Season APEX189.4

24.6Auto26.2

46Teleop52.4

22.4Endgame23

79Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	40
teleop	45	48
endgame	6	30
foul	0	0
total	77	118

Result

Final score

77 – 118

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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