FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.92 – 224.98

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 201.2 ±12.2

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 40.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 79.88Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 7.61Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 576 ±11.2

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 76.47Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 51.29Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4099The Falcons

Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 97.22Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8230, 10224, 9214

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8230, 10224, 9214

Auto

16.9 14%

Teleop

65.3 52%

Endgame

42.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2028, 11415, 4099

/ 100 compat

Projected

225 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2028, 11415, 4099

Auto

35.7 16%

Teleop

126.3 57%

Endgame

60.5 27%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 2.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.9pts

Blue projected score225pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.1
Score range: 102–251
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

201.2Season APEX576

16.9Auto35.7

65.3Teleop126.3

42.5Endgame60.5

81Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	55
teleop	84	191
endgame	38	68
foul	0	0
total	136	314

Result

Final score

136 – 314

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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