FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

177.53 – 118.84

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

288 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.5 ±11

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 55.5Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 51.12Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 70.91Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±10.5

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 16.62Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 69.94Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11425Byteforge

Season APEX 65.7Event APEX 32.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 404, 2890, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

177.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 404, 2890, 1086

Auto

44.2 25%

Teleop

98.8 55%

Endgame

35.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 1908, 11425

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 611, 1908, 11425

Auto

30.2 26%

Teleop

62.1 54%

Endgame

22.8 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score177.5pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.7
Score range: 93–204
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 461 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.5Season APEX338.6

44.2Auto30.2

98.8Teleop62.1

35.1Endgame22.8

38Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	5
teleop	207	55
endgame	35	98
foul	0	15
total	288	173

Result

Final score

288 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 82.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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