FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

130.24 – 48.73

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

213 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.3 ±12.2

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -9.13Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 47.45Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 91.92Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 153.8 ±12.1

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 32.6Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2998VikingBots

Season APEX 23.6Event APEX 9.13Rank 30Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6326⚡ Baltimore Bolts ⚡

Season APEX 37.4Event APEX 7Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4286, 1599, 122

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4286, 1599, 122

Auto

20.6 16%

Teleop

56.9 45%

Endgame

47.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 2998, 6326

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 2998, 6326

Auto

9.6 22%

Teleop

11.0 25%

Endgame

22.6 52%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score130.2pts

Blue projected score48.7pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 81.5
Score range: 23–156
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

239.3Season APEX153.8

20.6Auto9.6

56.9Teleop11

47.9Endgame22.6

99Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	9
teleop	116	26
endgame	47	25
foul	15	15
total	213	75

Result

Final score

213 – 75

Prediction correct · off by 54.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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