FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.14 – 192.68

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

100 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.5 ±12.2

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 14.82Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 57.01Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 66.31Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 392.1 ±10.5

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 54.7Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1895Lambda Corps

Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 53.83Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 84.15Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9403, 11415, 404

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9403, 11415, 404

Auto

32.3 23%

Teleop

77.8 56%

Endgame

29.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1599, 1895, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1599, 1895, 1908

Auto

32.3 17%

Teleop

100.2 54%

Endgame

54.0 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.1pts

Blue projected score192.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.5
Score range: 109–222
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 286 vs event baseline 162.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.5Season APEX392.1

32.3Auto32.3

77.8Teleop100.2

29.6Endgame54

55Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	22
teleop	53	112
endgame	25	52
foul	0	0
total	100	186

Result

Final score

100 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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