FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.97 – 117.54

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

98 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.5 ±12.7

612Chantilly Robotics

Season APEX 45.6Event APEX 19.54Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 11.16Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 43.27Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 365.7 ±11.2

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 8.81Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2890The Hawk Collective

Season APEX 95.7Event APEX 45.81Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 62.92Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 612, 611, 8230

/ 100 compat

Projected

74 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 612, 611, 8230

Auto

17.1 22%

Teleop

40.8 53%

Endgame

19.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9403, 2890, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9403, 2890, 1908

Auto

31.9 28%

Teleop

49.5 43%

Endgame

33.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.23 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74pts

Blue projected score117.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.6
Score range: 48–144
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 141.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.5Season APEX365.7

17.1Auto31.9

40.8Teleop49.5

19.3Endgame33.6

30Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	49
teleop	33	136
endgame	46	9
foul	0	5
total	98	199

Result

Final score

98 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 52.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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