Qualification · Qualification 47
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
184.25 – 174.89
53%47%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
217 – 74
Prediction correct · off by 66.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 363.3 ±11
Season APEX 93.1Event APEX 63.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 79.7Event APEX 65.61Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 54.86Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 366.8 ±11.2
Season APEX 12.6Event APEX 1.91Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 61.19Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 261.4Event APEX 111.79Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1895, 526, 11415
75
/ 100 compatProjected
184.3 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 1895, 526, 11415
Auto
25.1 14%
Teleop
107.3 58%
Endgame
51.6 28%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4286, 2068, 4099
77
/ 100 compatProjected
174.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 4286, 2068, 4099
Auto
37.5 22%
Teleop
98.5 58%
Endgame
33.6 20%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 62%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.53
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score184.3pts
Blue projected score174.9pts
Red win probability53%
Event bonus sample150alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 62%, blue 55%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 9.4
- Score range
- 150–209
- Upset likelihood
- 47%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
363.3Season APEX366.8
25.1Auto37.5
107.3Teleop98.5
51.6Endgame33.6
76Consistency136
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 52 | 24 |
| teleop | 116 | 25 |
| endgame | 44 | 20 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 217 | 74 |
Result
Final score
217 – 74
Prediction correct · off by 66.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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