FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.8 – 179.05

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

132 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194 ±12.2

404⚒️ 404 ART Not Found ⚒️

Season APEX 65.9Event APEX 58.39Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9214Honking Narwhals

Season APEX 30.8Event APEX 14.89Rank 28Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 63.52Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 375.5 ±12.2

9003TuTu Turtles

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 22.97Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

122NASA Knights

Season APEX 158.6Event APEX 84.61Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2028Phantom Robotics

Season APEX 124.1Event APEX 71.47Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 404, 9214, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 404, 9214, 620

Auto

28.4 21%

Teleop

73.1 54%

Endgame

34.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9003, 122, 2028

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9003, 122, 2028

Auto

18.9 11%

Teleop

96.1 57%

Endgame

53.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score136.8pts

Blue projected score179.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.2
Score range: 112–204
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 418 vs event baseline 139.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194Season APEX375.5

28.4Auto18.9

73.1Teleop96.1

34.3Endgame53.5

60Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	36
teleop	64	164
endgame	39	81
foul	5	5
total	132	286

Result

Final score

132 – 286

Prediction correct · off by 55.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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