FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.39 – 89.87

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 232.8 ±12.2

112521st ACT

Season APEX 27.3Event APEX 12.5Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2363Triple Helix Robotics

Season APEX 76Event APEX 70.71Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10224MAV MECHANICS (NASA)

Season APEX 129.5Event APEX 83.18Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.1 ±12.7

1793The Aviators

Season APEX 21.1Event APEX 6.72Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8230KoiBots

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 41.71Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1599CircuiTree

Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 41.44Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11252, 2363, 10224

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11252, 2363, 10224

Auto

16.5 10%

Teleop

88.8 55%

Endgame

56.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1793, 8230, 1599

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1793, 8230, 1599

Auto

24.4 27%

Teleop

42.3 48%

Endgame

22.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.4pts

Blue projected score89.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 76.5
Score range: 65–191
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 318 vs event baseline 139.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

232.8Season APEX130.1

16.5Auto24.4

88.8Teleop42.3

56.4Endgame22.3

103Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	18
teleop	108	54
endgame	65	48
foul	0	0
total	198	120

Result

Final score

198 – 120

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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