FCH District Chesapeake VA Event presented by Newport News Ship Yard / Hampton Roads Community Foundation (Norfolk Southern)

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.42 – 64.61

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 267.7 ±11

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 62.58Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 7.92Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2068Metal Jackets

Season APEX 92.8Event APEX 55.92Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 242.2 ±12.8

11415Storm Surge

Season APEX 190.5Event APEX 54.95Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9403Starstuff

Season APEX 39.1Event APEX 9.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4286Imperial Robotics

Season APEX 12.6Event APEX -0.06Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1086, 611, 2068

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1086, 611, 2068

Auto

25.9 20%

Teleop

74.3 58%

Endgame

27.2 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11415, 9403, 4286

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11415, 9403, 4286

Auto

8.4 13%

Teleop

27.8 44%

Endgame

26.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.4pts

Blue projected score64.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.8
Score range: 40–151
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 139.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

267.7Season APEX242.2

25.9Auto8.4

74.3Teleop27.8

27.2Endgame26.8

85Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	17
teleop	134	36
endgame	23	18
foul	0	0
total	189	71

Result

Final score

189 – 71

Prediction correct · off by 34.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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